Modeling Water-Quality Loads to the Reservoirs of the Upper Trinity River Basin, Texas, USA

The Upper Trinity River Basin (TRB) is the most populated river basin and one of the largest water suppliers in Texas. However, sediment and nutrient loads are reducing the capacity of reservoirs and degrading water quality. The objectives of this study are to calibrate and validate the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model for ten study watersheds within the Upper TRB in order to assess nutrient loads into major reservoirs in the basin and to predict the effects of point source elimination and urbanization on nutrient loads through scenario analyses. SWAT performed reasonably well for the current condition except for two out of five tributaries in the Eagle Mountain watershed and total phosphorous in Richland-Chambers. The impacts of simulated scenarios varied within watersheds. Point-source elimination achieved reductions ranging from 0.3% to 24% in total phosphorus and 1% to 56% in total nitrogen received by the reservoirs. Population and development projections were used to examine the impacts of urbanization on each watershed. Projected urbanization in 2030 had large effects on simulated total phosphorus loads in some watersheds, ranging from a reduction of 1% to an increase of 111%. Projected urbanization also affected simulated total nitrogen loads, from a reduction of 3% to an increase of 24%. One limitation of this study is the lack of long-term, up-to-date water quality data due to discontinued water-quality monitoring stations. Although careful considerations were given to the adjustment of parameter values reflecting various aspects of the nutrient processes, further data collection will enhance modeling study for assessment of these watersheds' water resources and environmental problem.