HOUSEHOLD LEVERAGE AND THE RECESSION

被引：11

作者：

Jones, Callum ^{[1
]}

Midrigan, Virgiliu ^{[2
,3
]}

Philippon, Thomas ^{[3
,4
,5
]}

机构：

[1] Fed Reserve Board, Washington, DC 20551 USA

[2] NYU, Dept Econ, New York, NY 10003 USA

[3] NBER, Cambridge, MA 02138 USA

[4] NYU, Dept Finance, Stern Sch Business, New York, NY 10003 USA

[5] Ctr Econ Policy Res, London, England

来源：

ECONOMETRICA | 2022年 / 90卷 / 05期

关键词：

Great Recession; household debt; regional evidence; zero lower bound; GREAT RECESSION; FISCAL STIMULUS; BUSINESS; CONSTRAINTS; LIQUIDITY; CONSUMPTION; INFLATION; PRICES; MODEL; CRISES;

D O I：

10.3982/ECTA16455

中图分类号：

F [经济];

学科分类号：

02 ;

摘要：

We evaluate and partially challenge the household leverage view of the Great Recession. In the data, employment and consumption declined more in U.S. states where household debt declined more. We study a model of a monetary union composed of many regions in which liquidity constraints shape the response of employment and consumption to changes in debt. We estimate the model with Bayesian methods combining state and aggregate data. Changes in household credit explain 40% of the differential rise and fall of employment across states, but a small fraction of the aggregate employment decline in 2007-2010. Nevertheless, since household deleveraging was gradual, credit shocks greatly slowed the recovery.

引用

页码：2471 / 2505

页数：35

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