A broad scientific consensus, seen in reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, predicts global atmospheric warming over future decades, with likely effects that include changes in rainfall patterns, increases in extreme weather events, and rises in sea levels. Such effects are expected to differ markedly in their consequences among countries, depending on fortuitous geographic circumstances and each country's ability and capacity to respond. The worst-affected countries, it is argued, will face drastic declines in agricultural productivity and increased flood risks to coastal settlements, plausibly leading to conflicts over resources and heightened pressures for migration. These potential political and security implications of climate change may extend well beyond the borders of the countries affected, creating problems for much wider regions and for the international system at large. They are receiving increasing attention by governments. The European Council, the top political body of the European Union (comprised of the heads of government of member states), requested a report on this subject from the European Commission (the EU's executive branch). The report, Climate Change and International Security, was presented at the Council's meeting in Brussels on March 14 2008. It is reprinted below. Formally described as a paper from the High Representative and the European Commission, it was prepared under the authority of Javier Solana, Secretary General of the Council, in his capacity as the EU's High Representative for the Common Foreign and Security Policy, and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, Commissioner for External Relations. It sets out, concisely and without documentation, the main anticipated threats to international security deriving from climate change-seen as a "threat multiplier"-and offers brief descriptions of their possible regional incidence. Environmentally-induced migration looms large: such migrants may be numbered in "millions," leading to increased conflict in " transit and destination areas." Europe, the report states, " must expect substantially increased migratory pressures." The document may be found at "http://www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressdata/en/esdp/99388. pdf".
