The impact of rapid coastline changes and sea level rise on the tides in the Bohai Sea, China

The tidal regime in the Bohai Sea, China, is investigated using observations and an established numerical tidal model. The area has recently experienced rapid coastline changes due to natural developments of the Yellow River delta and large-scale anthropogenic land reclamation. These morphological changes are not reflected in most global bathymetric databases and are thus rarely incorporated into investigations of the Bohai Sea. It is shown that there have indeed been significant changes in the tidal regime in the Bohai Sea over the last 35 years, with M-2 amplitudes changing up to 20 cm in some parts. The model captures some of these changes when the appropriate bathymetries are used. Furthermore, the simulations show that the tides in the Bohai Sea have become more sensitive to future sea level rise and the way in which it is implemented in the model (i.e., whether or not flood defenses are included). These sensitivity changes are due to the recent coastal developments.