Spatial distribution and determinants of abortion among reproductive age women in Ethiopia, evidence from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey 2016 data: Spatial and mixed-effect analysis

Background Unsafe abortion remains a global public health concern and it is the leading cause of maternal mortality and morbidity. Despite the efforts made to improve maternal health care service utilization, unsafe abortion yet constitutes the highest maternal mortality in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) including Ethiopia. Although abortion among reproductive-age women is a common problem in Ethiopia, there is limited evidence about the spatial distribution and determinants of abortion. Therefore, this study aimed to investigate the spatial distribution and determinants of abortion among reproductive-age women in Ethiopia. Methods A secondary data analysis was conducted using the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) data. A total of 12378 reproductive-age women were included in this study. The Bernoulli model was fitted using SaTScan version 9.6 statistical software to identify significant hotspot areas of abortion and ArcGIS version 10.6 statistical software was used to explore the spatial distributions of abortion. For the determinant factors, a mixed effect logistic regression model was fitted to take into account the hierarchical nature of the EDHS data. Deviance (-2LL), AIC, BIC, and ICC were used for model comparison. The AOR with a 95% CI was estimated for the potential determinants of abortion. Results The overall prevalence of abortion in Ethiopia was 8.9% ranging from 4.5% in Benishangul to 11.3% in Tigray regions. The spatial analysis revealed that abortion was significantly varied across the country. The SaTScan analysis identified a total of 60 significant clusters, of these 19 clusters were primary clusters. The primary clusters were located in the northern part of the Tigray region (LLR = 26.6, p<0.01; RR = 2.63). In the multivariable mixed-effect logistic regression analysis; primary education [AOR = 1.36; 95% CI: 1.13, 1.64], rural residence [AOR = 4.96; 95% CI: 3.42, 7.18], protestant religion follower [AOR = 0.56; 95% CI: 0.42, 0.75], richest wealth status [AOR = 1.72; 95% CI: 1.24, 2.40], maternal age 45-49 years [AOR = 3.12; 95% CI: 1.52, 6.44], listening radio [AOR = 1.27; 1.01, 1.60], and watching television [AOR = 1.45; 1.04, 2.01] were significant determinants of abortion. Conclusions The prevalence of abortion remains unacceptably high in Ethiopia. The spatial distribution of abortion has been significantly varied across regions in Ethiopia. Having primary education, being rural, having media exposure, and being from the richest household were significantly associated with higher odds of abortion whereas being protestant religious followers were associated with lower odds of abortion. Therefore, the government should design public health programs targeting the identified hotspot areas of abortion and should scale up maternal health programs in rural areas, to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality.