An integrated prediction model for water supply-demand ability

In this paper, a model is developed to measure the ability of water supply in a region, based on the dynamic nature of the factors that affect both supply and demand. We pick China, a water-strapped country, to begin our analysis. For water demand, we assume the water demand can be approximately thought as the water withdrawal consumption. The withdrawal is divided into three parts: agricultural, industrial and municipal. For water supply, we mainly consider surface water, underground water and desalination. Through the historical data from China, we get the fitting curves. Using simple polynomial regression prediction and grey prediction, we establish the model. to predict the water withdrawal in the future. As for water supply, we build model. by using linear regression prediction and polynomial prediction.