The Margin Risk and Price Effects in the Turkish Milk Market

An evolution of the margin risks was performed using the relationship between excess price yield, prices of margin and conditional volatility. The analysis was performed with GARCH-M model using 21 years of monthly sale price data. The model parameters were estimated using a maximum likelihood function. The sample period ranged from January 1986 to March 2007. A recursive estimation model was used to obtain a temporary evolution of coefficients in a remuneration scheme for risk (CRR). The results revealed the sensitivity of risk-based cost pricing to retail prices (margin).