Climate Change Affecting Forest Fire and Flood Risk-Facts, Predictions, and Perceptions in Central and South Greece

Global Climate change (CC) is featured by long-term changes in the mean values of climatic parameters (predominantly mean temperature) and in the profile of extreme weather events (e.g., increase in frequency, intensity, lengthening, and persistence). These climatic changes are supposed to have a deterioration impact on forest fire and flood disasters. Greece, an east Mediterranean country, is featured by a wide variety of micro-climates due to its unique geographical diversity, including hot and dry summers in the eastern part of the country (where a large amount of precipitation falls in the form of showers and thunderstorms) and wet winters in the western part. The combination of certain climatic zones with unfavorable land use and land cover changing patterns has resulted in several regions being prone to flooding and forest fires. The authors, based on relevant records, consider central and south Greece as flood and forest fire hotspots and attempt to: (a) present scientific estimations of local climate changes; (b) outline recent trends in the number of respective disasters and the amount of losses in these regions; (c) address recent changes in local climatic factors that might have influenced flood and forest fire hazard and risk in these regions; and (d) study the perceptions of the lay public and management authorities regarding the accountability of CC for flood and forest fire risk and hazard changes. The results show the variability of climate changes between neighboring areas, which directly affect the risk of forest fires and floods. Especially since the beginning of the 21st century, central Greece has been experiencing dramatic increases in both risks, while in south Greece the latter remain relatively stable. With regard to the perceptions of citizens and management authorities, the mental connection of local CC with forest fires and floods is still weak if not totally missing. Since knowledge and perceptions of the local "history" of forest fires and floods and the interconnections with CC by region is very important for the local communities to take appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures, this paper outlines a methodological path for similar studies to be conducted also in other regions of the Mediterranean basin and beyond.