Pushed out of the education system: using a natural experiment to evaluate consequences for boys

Objectives To examine the short-term effects of admission requirements for upper secondary vocational education and training (VET) on enrollment and criminal offending among academically low-achieving boys. Methods We apply multi-group difference-in-differences models to full population data and analyze an educational policy reform in Denmark (N= 60,759). Results The reform caused a 16 percentage points lower enrollment in VET among academically low-achieving boys, and their risk of being charged with a crime increased by up to two percentage points 9 months after the end of compulsory school. However, after 12 months, the effect on criminal charges disappeared. Conclusion In the education-crime nexus, educational enrollment in upper secondary education is an understudied margin, which has important implications for both scholars and policy-makers. Limitations include the short follow-up period and that the analyses examine effects for boys only.