Perspectives on Australian foreign policy 1998

1998 saw the most dramatic changes in Australia's external environment since the end of the Cold War a decade earlier. Several Asian crises intersected: the East Asian monetary crisis of the second half of 1997 was followed by dramatic reductions in growth or, worse, economic recession, in Japan and in many of the East Asian 'tigers' that had boomed in the previous decades. In Indonesia this economic crisis further transformed into a deep political crisis which ended President Suharto's 32-year reign in May, and interim President Habibie scheduled mid-1999 elections for Parliament and selection of a new President. In Malaysia, Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamed put his ambitious deputy Anwar Ibrahim on trial on a range of sex and corruption charges, generating a series of street clashes and challenging the Malaysian judicial system to produce a just outcome independent of the Prime Minister's pressure. The nature of the charges echoed a year of disclosures about US President Clinton's sexual behaviour, matters that arguably distracted the leadership of the world's superpower for much of the year and led finally to an impeachment trial for perjury and obstruction of justice. Despite an aversion to the term 'middle power', associated by the Coalition government with the perceived over-activism of former foreign minister Evans, Australia nevertheless continued in 1998 to participate in the kinds of multilateral diplomatic activities that are a hallmark of middle power status. Moreover, Australia self-consciously sought a leadership role in key multilateral settings, including APEC and arms control/disarmament forums. It may be that in times of rapid international change, Australia is driven to this kind of role in order to aspire to some influence over the shape of the external environment. In 1998, Australia's leadership efforts were, however, largely unsuccessful. In the regional economic arena, APEC did not take up the trade liberalisation agenda that Australia was pursuing. In the security area, India and Pakistan demonstrated that they had not been constrained by the CTBT regime and the new global 'consensus' on proliferation that Australia had helped to construct. Furthermore, Australia's longstanding recognition of Indonesian sovereignty over East Timor, which Australia had hoped would lead to a more general acceptance of Indonesia's claim, seemed increasingly isolated and at odds with the course of events. Australia abandoned its leadership efforts in global warming and concentrated on reducing the requirements expected from Australia.