Credit Quota, Real Estate Price and Macro-economy: Based on 31 Provinces Panel Data Analysis

Using the panel data of China' s 31 provinces from 1997 to 2009 and applying panel OIS and SYS-GMM estimation methods, this paper makes an empirical research of the relationship among credit quota, real estate price and macro economy, which focuses on demand factors. The results show that: the growing credit quota of China is one of the reasons of promoting real estate price; the high price of real estate restrains the-increase in residential aggregate consumption and savings hi the macro economy. Therefore, when making monetary policy, the central bank should control credit quota to an appropriate extent to smooth the volatility of real estate price,which will lead the residential consumption construction and savings to a reasonable level and promote stable and healthy economic development.