Performance prediction tools for parallel discrete-event simulation

We have developed a set of performance prediction teals which help to estimate the achievable speedups from parallelizing a sequential simulation. The tools focus on two important factors in the actual speedup of a parallel simulation program : (a) the simulation protocol used, and (b) the inherent parallelism in the simulation model. The first two tools are a performance/parallelism analyzer for a conservative, asynchronous simulation protocol and a similar analyzer for a conservative, synchronous ("super-step") protocol. Each analyzer allows us to study how the speedup of a model changes with increasing number of processors, when a specific protocol is used. The third tool - a critical path analyzer - gives an ideal upper bound to the model's speedup. This paper gives an overview of the prediction tools, and reports the predictions from applying the tools to a discrete-event wafer fabrication simulation model. The predictions are close to speedups from actual parallel implementations. These tools help us to set realistic expectations of the speedup from a parallel simulation program, and to focus our work on issues which are more likely to yield performance improvement.