On the Danger and Necessity of Democratisation: trade-offs between short-term stability and long-term peace in post-genocide Rwanda

This paper argues that the Rwandan government's reconciliation strategy will need to be accompanied by a process of democratisation if it is to achieve its objective of fostering long-term peace. If the discourse of national unity is not reflected in an effective sharing of political power and economic resources, it is likely to be perceived with suspicion or even rejection by the country's largely Hutu population, and could contribute to aggravating ethnic tensions. Last time Rwandaunder pressure from the international communityundertook a democratisation process, however, this contributed to exacerbating the ethnic tensions that led to the genocide. Today Rwanda and its international donors thus face a stark trade-off between short-term stability and long-term peace: the longer the country puts off necessary democratic reform for fear of upsetting stability, the greater the risk of a rejection of government policies by the population and of a renewed manipulation of ethnicity in the future.