Decadal Prediction of Temperature: Achievements and Future Prospects

Decadal prediction refers to predictions on annual, multi-year, and decadal time scales. This paper reviews major developments in decadal prediction that have occurred in the past few years, including attribution of temperature anomalies in northern latitudes, the recent slowdown in the rate of global warming (the "hiatus"), and mechanisms of decadal predictability that do not involve interactive ocean circulations. In addition, this paper discusses certain advances that, in the opinion of the author, have not been given the attention they deserve in previous reviews, including a unified framework for quantifying decadal predictability, empirical models for decadal prediction, defining improved indices of decadal predictability, and clarification of the relation between power spectra and predictability.