A sequential neural network model for diabetes prediction

This paper presents a neural network (NN) model to evaluate an existing Health Risk Appraisal (HRA)(2) for diabetes prediction over 3 years (1996-1998) based on a simulated learning algorithm on individual prognostic process, using the repeatedly measured HRAs of 6142 participants. The approach uses a sequential multi-layered perceptron (SMLP) with backpropagation learning, and an explicit model of time-varying inputs along with the sequentially obtained prediction probability, which was obtained by embedding a multivariate logistic function for consecutive years. The study captures the time-sensitive feature of associating risk factors as predictors to the occurrence of diabetes in the corresponding period. This approach outperforms the baseline classification and regression models in terms of gains (average profit: 0.18) and sensitivity (86.04%) for a test data. The result enables a time-sensitive disease prevention and management program as a prospective effort. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.