Temporal Trends and Projections of Bladder Cancer Burden in China from 1990 to 2030: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study

Purpose: Identifying disease burden and risk factors of bladder cancer and projecting its epidemiological trend in China, which can provide reference data to formulate measures for its management and prevention. Methods: We analyzed the incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) data of bladder cancer in China from 1990 to 2019 and predicted to 2030 based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We also estimated the proportion of risk factors contributing to bladder cancer DALYs. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) in both sexes was calculated to quantify the temporal trends. Results: In China, the age-standardized incidence rate of bladder cancer increased from 3.3/100,000 in 1990 to 5.16/100,000 in 2019 (AAPC of 1.47), while the age-standardized mortality rate and age-standardized DALYs rate declined slightly (AAPC of -0.58 and -0.65, respectively). The burden of bladder cancer increased with age, which reached a peak over 85 years old. The main risk factor for bladder cancer was smoking, and the contribution of high fasting plasma glucose increased from 1990 to 2019, with an AAPC of 0.85 in males and 0.61 in females. We predicted total incident cases, deaths and DALYs will increase to 150,372 and 53,520 and 1043,688 in 2030, respectively. The disease burden of bladder cancer in males will consistently higher than that in females from 2020 to 2030. Conclusion: Although mortality and DALYs rates showed downward trends, the disease burden remained heavy in China at present. More effective and long-term health policies are needed to develop for early prevention and treatment of bladder cancer.