Measuring ecosystem services based on government intentions for future land use in Hubei Province: implications for sustainable landscape management

Context Exploring how ecosystem service values (ESV) are likely to change based on government intentions to develop and protect land is essential for sustainable landscape management. Objectives (1) Simulate land use change under future baseline (BAS), resource consumption (CON), and resource protection (PRO) scenarios, based on forecasted land expropriation prices implemented by the government of Hubei Province. (2) Measure changes in ecosystem services influenced by future land use. (3) Provide sustainable landscape management strategies to control the risk of ecosystem service loss. Methods This research couples Computable General Equilibrium of Land Use Change and Dynamics of Land System (CGELUC-DLS) models to simulate land use changes and calculatedESVusing the equivalent factor method. Results (1) Predicted areas of cultivated land, forest, and grassland throughout Hubei Province declined under the three scenarios between 2015 and 2025. (2) Compared with 2015, equivalent values per unit area of ecosystem services (ESVe) decreased by 2.27%, 4.01%, and 1.67% in 2025 under BAS, CON, and PRO scenarios, respectively. The future trend inESV(e)reduction across western Hubei Province did abate in the PRO scenario. (3) Reasonably adjusting land expropriation prices is a regulatory approach that can serve to strengthen sustainable landscape management in China. Conclusions ESVwill inevitably decline in the future due to continuous land use changes across Hubei Province. The government should implement diversified strategies to control ecosystem services loss, including adjusting land expropriation prices, adopting regional differentiated management strategies, and implementing intensive but sustainable land use policies.