An Ecological Analysis of the 2012 Parliamentary and the 2014 Presidential Elections in Slovakia: Potentials and Limits of Structural Explanations

This study addresses the often debated importance of structure for explaining voting behavior and cleavage formation in post-communist countries. Based on ecological analysis this study applies multivariate regression analysis (MRA) to test the possibilities and limits of structure in explaining the results of the 2012 parliamentary elections and 2014 presidential elections in Slovakia. The study reveals the high importance of general structure compared to findings in Western Europe, as all tested structural factors together explain from 46 to 77 per cent of electoral variation for the parliamentary election and from 25 to almost 99 per cent of the presidential candidates' support. MRA confirms some findings from previous research, e.g. the significance of ethnicity and the rural-urban divide. However our model does not confirm the strength of the religious factor for the Christian Democrats (KDH). Discussing the findings the study suggests that to improve structure-based explanations in post-communist countries it is necessary to adjust the conceptualization of structure to fit the region's unique history.