A climatological analysis of emergency homeless shelter openings in Long Beach, California, USA

Exposure to cold presents a serious risk to homeless persons, particularly on cold, rainy winter nights. Emergency homeless shelters operate in cities throughout the United States to provide residents refuge from dangerous weather; however, few of these shelters appear to have incorporated rigorous climatological analysis into their scheduling procedures. We have analyzed historical climate data for Long Beach, California, where limited funding and highly variable winter weather present serious challenges to shelter operators. Our analysis indicates that the existing schedule of shelter availability, between December 1 and March 15, is fairly effective in incorporating a large number of days where the temperature is below 4.4 degrees C (40 F) or precipitation occurs. On the other hand, we suggest that the schedule should be adjusted somewhat by accounting for both human and climatological factors. Human factors include the seasonal lag in cultural adaptation to cold and occasional unexpected delays in resource availability that prevents shelters from opening by December 1. Climatological factors include the significant variation in dangerous winter weather caused by El Nino-Southern Oscillation cycles, and perhaps, the long-term impact of climate change. Specifically, opening shelters a week or more earlier, particularly during La Nina years, would likely decrease the risk of cold-exposure to the affected homeless population. We feel that our approach could be applied effectively to aid emergency-shelter operators throughout the country, given their need to maximize access during the most dangerous weather conditions despite limited resources. (c) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.