Estimation methods for the LRD parameter under a change in the mean

被引:7
|
作者
Rooch, Aeneas [1 ]
Zelo, Ieva [2 ]
Fried, Roland [2 ]
机构
[1] Ruhr Univ Bochum, Fak Math, D-44780 Bochum, Germany
[2] Tech Univ Dortmund, Fak Stat, Dortmund, Germany
关键词
Hurst parameter; Estimation; Jump; Long-range dependence; Long memory; Change-point problems; LONG-RANGE DEPENDENCE; LOCAL WHITTLE ESTIMATION; CHANGE-POINT DETECTION; FRACTIONAL-INTEGRATION; MEMORY PARAMETER; NONSTATIONARY; MODELS;
D O I
10.1007/s00362-016-0839-7
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
When analyzing time series which are supposed to exhibit long-range dependence (LRD), a basic issue is the estimation of the LRD parameter, for example the Hurst parameter H(1/2,1). Conventional estimators of H easily lead to spurious detection of long memory if the time series includes a shift in the mean. This defect has fatal consequences in change-point problems: Tests for a level shift rely on H, which needs to be estimated before, but this estimation is distorted by the level shift. We investigate two blocks approaches to adapt estimators of H to the case that the time series includes a jump and compare them with other natural techniques as well as with estimators based on the trimming idea via simulations. These techniques improve the estimation of H if there is indeed a change in the mean. In the absence of such a change, the methods little affect the usual estimation. As adaption, we recommend an overlapping blocks approach: If one uses a consistent estimator, the adaption will preserve this property and it performs well in simulations.
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页码:313 / 347
页数:35
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