Prospects for desertification impacts in Southern Europe

Prospective model-based approaches to desertification are hindered by a lack of unifying process specifications underlying the phenomenon, and by the difficulty of forecasting trends in its driving forces. Elementary concepts for a dynamic systems approach to desertification are discussed as a groundwork for the prospective task. Emphasis on the differentiation between 'relict' and 'current' desertification enables successful treatment programs to be planned. The prospective task focuses on the Southern European Union countries (Greece, Italy, France, Spain and Portugal), which share more than 95% of the southern European Mediterranean climate area. The effort to control relict desertification has been evaluated using the evolution of forest-woodland and agricultural areas over a period of time, together with the total reforested area. Current risk of desertification was approached in three steps: (i) analysis of the temporal evolution of a driver-level indicator such as the per capita Net Internal Agricultural Produce (ANIP); (ii) examination of the associated changes in land-use systems indicators, and (iii) exploring the impact of these changes on natural resources. Results show that in Southern EU countries, the older traditional agriculture will continue to be transformed into that of an open market. This process involves the development of site-selective and technically sophisticated irrigated agriculture. The main consequence is a build-up of large water deficits, particularly if climate change scenarios are considered, with severe impact on: (i) water and soil quality and (ii) interregional conflicts triggered by, affecting large areas of irrigation water suppliers. Prospects for EU agricultural policies indicate a shift from supporting production to helping integrated development and sustainability. Within this scenario, desertification factors, such as overstocking rangelands and tree crops encroaching in marginal areas, are unlikely to persist while restoration of threats of relict desertification is expected to increase in the near future.