User-oriented Internet link characteristics and forecast

This paper proposed a frame to characterize Internet link and forecast the link status and network traffic in the near future. We use pathchar, packet pair to measure the latency of hops along a link, and TCPdump to collect the traffic of local LAN. To improve the accuracy of the estimate of bandwidth, the Extreme Value Theory is deployed. The examples show the feasibility of EVT filter. The FARIMA(p,d,q) (fractional autoregressive integrated moving average) models are used to describe both dependence types simultaneously. FARIMA(p,d,q) based prediction is also presented.