The effects of Seoul's new-town development on suburbanization and mobility: a counterfactual approach

The author explores the effects of Seoul's new-town development on suburbanization and mobility by evaluating a counterfactual situation involving variable urban spatial structures and citizen mobility in situations with and without the presence of new towns. Two different scenarios are tested: a scenario with new towns (baseline); and one with no new towns (no-new-town scenario). Both scenarios are tested by constructing two types of random-utility-based location-choice models which focus on employment and shopping locations. Findings reveal substantial suburbanization driven by the development of the new suburban towns, as well as both positive and negative consequences of new-town development. Seoul's new town development has positively contributed to decreases in travel time due to the relief of congestion in the central city. This congestion relief results in major transportation cost savings of US$0.6 billion per year. The positive effects of new-town development, however, are offset by the negative consequences of suburbanization of the new towns. Negative consequences of suburbanization include longer times of travel for commuting and shopping trips, and increased emission levels.