Adaptive and self-confident on-line learning algorithms

We study on-line learning in the linear regression framework. Most oh the performance bounds for on-line algorithms in this framework assume a constant learning rate. To achieve these bounds the learning rate trust be optimized based on a posteriori information. This information depends on the whole sequence of examples and thus it is not available to any strictly on-line algorithm. We introduce new techniques for adaptively tuning the learning rate as the data sequence is progressively revealed. Our techniques allow us to prove essentially the same bounds as if we knew the optimal learning rate in advance. Moreover, such techniques apply to a wide class of on-line algorithms, including p-norm algorithms for generalized linear regression and Weighted Majority for linear regression with absolute loss. Our adaptive tunings are radically different from previous techniques, such as the so-called doubling trick. Whereas the doubling trick restarts the on-line algorithm several times using a constant learning rate for each run, our methods save information by changing the value of the learning rate very smoothly. In fact, for Weighted Majority over a finite set of experts our analysis provides a better leading constant than the doubling trick. (C) 2002 Elsevier science (USA).