Linking potential habitats of Odonata (Insecta) with changes in land use/land cover in Mexico

Land use/land cover change (LULCC) is a major threat that affects the viability of insect populations worldwide yet our estimates of such effects are usually poor. We analysed how LULCC affected the distribution of 49 species of dragonflies and damselflies in the south-central zone in Mexico during the period 2006-2012. For this, we mapped the potential species richness using ecological niche models in order to analyse predicted future changes and determined the effect of LULCC on the current and future habitats of Odonata. We also estimated current incidence of deforestation and projected its effect to 2050 using the Dinamica-EGO program. Having predicted the level of deforestation in the year 2050, we then compared current vs. expected species richness and the factors that determine it. First, roads and urban areas turned out to be the most important drivers of LULCC in our analysis. Second, deterioration occurred at all sites, but species richness remained high despite considerable habitat fragmentation. Third, there is likely to be a high species turnover rate (i.e. a high species richness, but composed of different species) even in areas where there are significant changes in the vegetation. Our work illustrates both a resilience of Odonata to LULCC and provides a useful method for measuring the effects of LULCC on insects.