Identifying the Determinants of CO2 Emission Change in China's Power Sector

Power sector is significantly important for China to achieve the CO2 emission reduction targets. In this study, we analyze the features of CO2 emissions and environment effect in China's power sector, investigate the driving factors of CO2 emission change based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) method, and evaluate the mitigation potential of CO2 emissions in China's power sector. Results show that CO2 emissions in China's power sector increased rapidly from 492.00Mt in 1990 to 3049.88Mt in 2014 while CO2 emission intensity experienced an unsteady downward trend during the study period. Industrial scale effect is the key contributor to CO2 emission growth in China's power sector, and its contribution degree reaches 123.97%. Energy intensity effect contributes most to the decrease in CO2 emissions, with a contribution degree of -20.01%. Capital productivity effect is another important factor leading to CO2 emissions increase. The aggregate CO2 emission reduction would reach 17973.86million tons (Mt) during 2015-2030 in the ideal emission reduction scenario. Finally, policy recommendations are made for future energy-saving and CO2 emission reduction in China's power sector.