The Effect of Variable Sea Surface Temperature on Forecasting Sea Fog and Sea Breezes: A Case Study

A preliminary study of the effect of sea surface temperature (SST) temporal and spatial variability on regional coastal weather forecasts is described. A high-resolution numerical weather forecast model from the Met Office is run for the U.K. region with hourly updates of SST data obtained from a shelf sea model. When compared with a control run in which SST is maintained with Operational Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Analysis (OSTIA) data, it is found that there are significant differences in the coastal-region forecasts for sea breezes and fog formation. The control run underestimates surface temperature and the strength of the sea breeze when compared with the run with hourly SST updates.