Estimating Human Error Probability using a modified CREAM

被引：39
|
作者：
Sun, Zhiqiang [1 ]
Li, Zhengyi [2 ]
Gong, Erling [1 ]
Xie, Hongwei [1 ]
机构：
[1] Natl Univ Def Technol, Coll Mechatron Engn & Automat, Changsha 410073, Hunan, Peoples R China
[2] Changsha Social Work Coll, Dept Comp, Changsha 410004, Hunan, Peoples R China
来源：
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY | 2012年 / 100卷
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
Human Error Probability; Human reliability; CREAM; Common performance condition; HUMAN RELIABILITY-ANALYSIS; QUANTIFICATION; HRA;
D O I：
10.1016/j.ress.2011.12.017
中图分类号：
T [工业技术];
学科分类号：
08 ;
摘要：
Human Error Probability (HEP) point estimation is important for Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) of socio-technical systems. We present a modified basic method of CREAM to provide the point estimation of HEP for PSA. Five acknowledged assumptions are introduced firstly and the HEP point estimation formula is elicited based on them. Furthermore, the reasonability of the method is discussed and the consistency with other two benchmarking HRA methods, THERP and HEART is validated. Finally, a simple example about starting up the submarine's engine is introduced and the probability of the error forgetting the warm operation is calculated using the modified method. The result of the method is consistent with the recorded human performance data and THERP. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码：28 / 32
页数：5
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [1] Bayesian Modelling for Human Error Probability Analysis in CREAM
    Yang, Zaili
    Wang, Jin
    Rochdi, Merzouki
    Belkacem, Ouldbouamama
    [J]. 2011 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON QUALITY, RELIABILITY, RISK, MAINTENANCE, AND SAFETY ENGINEERING (ICQR2MSE), 2011, : 137 - 142
  • [2] Estimating the Human Error Probability during Lifeboat Drills
    Biocic, Tonci
    Hasanspahic, Nermin
    Kristic, Miho
    Durdevic-Tomas, Ivica
    [J]. APPLIED SCIENCES-BASEL, 2024, 14 (14):
  • [3] Estimating human error probability in transporting steel cargo with bulk carriers using a hybrid approach
    Kaptan, Mehmet
    [J]. PROCEEDINGS OF THE INSTITUTION OF MECHANICAL ENGINEERS PART M-JOURNAL OF ENGINEERING FOR THE MARITIME ENVIRONMENT, 2022, 236 (02) : 303 - 314
  • [4] An experimental study on estimating human error probability (HEP) parameters for PSA/HRA by using human model simulation
    Yoshikawa, H
    Wu, W
    [J]. ERGONOMICS, 1999, 42 (11) : 1588 - 1595
  • [5] Estimating the Probability of a Checksum Error in a Message
    Baranov, A. P.
    Baranov, P. A.
    [J]. AUTOMATIC CONTROL AND COMPUTER SCIENCES, 2019, 53 (08) : 874 - 878
  • [6] Predictive Probability Model of Pilot Error Based on CREAM
    Zhang, Xiaoyan
    Xue, Hongjun
    Chen, Yingchun
    Zhou, Lin
    Lu, Gaohong
    [J]. HUMAN INTERFACE AND THE MANAGEMENT OF INFORMATION: INFORMATION AND KNOWLEDGE IN APPLICATIONS AND SERVICES, PT II, 2014, 8522 : 296 - 304
  • [7] Estimating the Probability of a Checksum Error in a Message
    A. P. Baranov
    P. A. Baranov
    [J]. Automatic Control and Computer Sciences, 2019, 53 : 874 - 878
  • [8] Necessary conditions for estimating the maximum bit error probability by using amplitude probability distribution of an interfering noise
    Matsumoto, Yasushi
    Gotoh, Kaoru
    [J]. IEICE COMMUNICATIONS EXPRESS, 2014, 3 (08): : 241 - 246
  • [9] Dynamic Human Error Assessment in Emergency Using Fuzzy Bayesian CREAM
    Abbassinia, Marzieh
    Kalatpour, Omid
    Motamedzade, Majid
    Soltanian, Alireza
    Mohammadfam, Iraj
    [J]. JOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN HEALTH SCIENCES, 2020, 20 (01)
  • [10] Human Error Probability Assessment for LNG Bunkering Based on Fuzzy Bayesian Network-CREAM Model
    Fan, Hongjun
    Enshaei, Hossein
    Jayasinghe, Shantha Gamini
    [J]. JOURNAL OF MARINE SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, 2022, 10 (03)
12345