Forecasting obesity trends in England

被引：12
|
作者：
Mills, Terence C. [1 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Loughborough, Dept Econ, Loughborough LE11 3TU, Leics, England
来源：
JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL STATISTICAL SOCIETY SERIES A-STATISTICS IN SOCIETY | 2009年 / 172卷
关键词：
Compositional data analysis; Demographic forecasting; Health forecasting; Multivariate time series; Prediction intervals; Regression; COMPOSITIONAL DATA-ANALYSIS; SERIES;
D O I：
10.1111/j.1467-985X.2008.00550.x
中图分类号：
O1 [数学]; C [社会科学总论];
学科分类号：
03 ; 0303 ; 0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要：
Forecasts of trends in obesity in England for 2010 are produced by treating the available data, which contain the proportions of the population, categorized by age and sex, falling into different body mass index ranges, as compositional data sets, so that the implicit simplex restrictions are automatically satisfied. Forecasts are calculated by using linear trend models for the log-ratio transformations and are accompanied by prediction regions. The advantages of treating data on proportions compositionally are emphasized and compared with forecasts that have been obtained by ignoring this restriction.
引用
收藏
页码：107 / 117
页数：11
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