The Application of Unascertained Mathematics in Project Risk Management

In modem management activities, risk exists everywhere for the changefulness of market economy and the imperfection of economic body' expectations. Risk management becomes more important than ever before. Risk management is the prediction, identification, evaluation, and analysis of risk that may be encountered. Basing on that, risk is disposed effectively and security assurance is reached. Because project exist objectivity, necessity and unascertained, it determines that project risk is universal existence. In this paper, on the base of summarizing the previous theory and methods of risk analysis and the goal of evaluating the project entire risk, a result of project risk evaluation is educed according to the rules of credible recognition after an index system in project risk evaluation is established. An unascertained measure is constructed and the unascertained measure values of all evaluation indexes are calculated. This method can solve a lot of unascertained problems in project risk system evaluation, and can analyze the project risk system quantitatively. The project risk degree can be better judged by this method, and the result is more objective. In the end, through the practical calculation illustrates the concrete process of evaluating project risk by this way. It shows that this method is suitable for the reaches of project risk management. The result that be obtained by the method can reflect the overall condition of the project risk objectively, and give reference for decision-maker.