The Power System Risk Assessment under Rainfall Weather and Subsequent Geological Disasters

The heavy rainfall weather often results in subsequent geological hazards and causes severe transmission line outage. In this paper, risk assessment model is established to evaluate related impacts against power grid. Specifically, transmission line failure probability is quantitatively modeled for risk evaluation based on precipitation and transmission tower deflection and non-sequential Monte Carlo simulation and optimal load shedding model. The interior point method and risk indicators are used for system risk calculation. The simulation examples of a Western China regional power grid show that the power system risk gradually increases with the expanded scope and increases severity of the hazards, which is in accordance with the real situation. The proposed methodology is very valuable in guiding transmission line construction and maintenance in tough weather and geological regions and is capable of substantial improvement of power supply quality.