A cointegration analysis of crime, economic activity, and police performance in Sao Paulo city

被引：10

作者：

dos Santos, Marcelo Justus ^{[1
]}

Kassouf, Ana Lucia ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Ponta Grossa Univ State, BR-84010790 Ponta Grossa, Brazil

[2] Univ Sao Paulo, BR-13418900 Piracicaba, Brazil

来源：

JOURNAL OF APPLIED STATISTICS | 2013年 / 40卷 / 10期

关键词：

crime; time series; cointegration analysis; criminality; lethal crime; TIME-SERIES; THRESHOLD COINTEGRATION; EFFICIENT TESTS; BUSINESS-CYCLE; UNITED-STATES; REGRESSION; RATES; UNEMPLOYMENT; DETERRENCE; HYPOTHESIS;

D O I：

10.1080/02664763.2013.804905

中图分类号：

O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];

学科分类号：

020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;

摘要：

The main objective of this paper is to investigate possible causes for the significant reduction observed in crime rates in SAo Paulo city. By applying a cointegration analysis, we observed long-run relationships between crime, economic activity, and police performance. The results indicate that the lethal crime rate is positively related to unemployment and negatively related to real wages and to the results of law-enforcement activities, specifically arrests and seizure of firearms. Moreover, the hypothesis that the Disarmament Statute led to a reduction in the lethal crime rate is not rejected.

引用

页码：2087 / 2109

页数：23

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