Intergroup Conflict and the Process of Social Change: Similar Conflicts, Different Intragroup Processes

Intergroup conflicts can occur in any society at any moment, radically modifying the societies experiencing them. However, two societies experiencing highly similar intergroup conflicts can have very different consequences. Some may be plunged into dramatic social change-a state in which a rapid event ruptures the social and normative structures and highly threatens the cultural identity-whereas other societies are not. In this article, we argue that similar intergroup conflicts can result in different societal states because of each society's initial societal state. Specifically, we use a Bayesian approach to the process of social change, which considers the state of a society before an intergroup conflict occurs (a priori societal state). We further argue that these a priori societal states are associated with different levels of resource availability. Societies experiencing an intergroup conflict from a prior societal state associated with resource abundance can actively shape the process of social change; they can better avoid the structural and normative rupture as well as the cultural identity threat. In contrast. societies beginning the process in a societal state with a resource deficit cannot modify the process and thus experience the full force of the event.