Traffic Incident Clearance Time and Arrival Time Prediction Based on Hazard Models

被引：38

作者：

Ji, Yang Beibei ^{[1
]}

Jiang, Rui ^{[2
]}

Qu, Ming ^{[2
]}

Chung, Edward ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Shanghai Univ, Sch Management, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[2] Queensland Univ Technol, Smart Transport Res Ctr, Brisbane, Qld 4001, Australia

来源：

MATHEMATICAL PROBLEMS IN ENGINEERING | 2014年 / 2014卷

关键词：

DURATION; FREQUENCY;

D O I：

10.1155/2014/508039

中图分类号：

T [工业技术];

学科分类号：

08 ;

摘要：

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an effective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction models are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads' STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

引用

页数：11

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