Long-term exposure to ambient fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and incident type 2 diabetes: a longitudinal cohort study

Aims/hypothesis Information on the associations of long-term exposure to fine particulate matter (with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 mu m; PM2.5) with the development of type 2 diabetes is scarce, especially for south-east Asia, where most countries are experiencing serious air pollution. This study aimed to investigate the long-term effects of exposure to ambient PM2.5 on the incidence of type 2 diabetes in a population of Taiwanese adults. Methods A total of 147,908 participants without diabetes, at least 18years of age, were recruited in a standard medical examination programme between 2001 and 2014. They were encouraged to take medical examinations periodically and underwent at least two measurements of fasting plasma glucose (FPG). Incident type 2 diabetes was identified as FPG 7mmol/l or self-reported physician-diagnosed diabetes in the subsequent medical visits. The PM2.5 concentration at each participant's address was estimated using a satellite-based spatiotemporal model with a resolution of 1 x 1 km(2). The 2 year average of PM2.5 concentrations (i.e. the year of and the year before the medical examination) was treated as an indicator of long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 air pollution. We performed Cox regression models with time-dependent covariates to analyse the long-term effects of exposure to PM2.5 on the incidence of type 2 diabetes. A wide range of covariates were introduced in the models to control for potential effects, including age, sex, education, season, year, smoking status, alcohol drinking, physical activity, vegetable intake, fruit intake, occupational exposure, BMI, hypertension and dyslipidaemia (all were treated as time-dependent covariates except for sex). Results Compared with the participants exposed to the first quartile of ambient PM2.5, participants exposed to the second, third and fourth quartiles of ambient PM2.5 had HRs of 1.28 (95% CI 1.18, 1.39), 1.27 (95% CI 1.17, 1.38) and 1.16 (95% CI 1.07, 1.26), respectively, for the incidence of type 2 diabetes. Participants who drank occasionally or regularly (more than once per week) or who had a lower BMI (<23 kg/m(2)) were more sensitive to the long-term effects of exposure to ambient PM2.5. Conclusions/interpretation Long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 appears to be associated with a higher risk of developing type 2 diabetes in this Asian population experiencing high levels of air pollution.