Waste LEDs in China: Generation estimation and potential recycling benefits

With light emitting diode (LED) devices popularizing, waste LEDs are expected to increase rapidly. Nevertheless, recycling policies and chains lag, largely due to scattered knowledge of waste generation and recycling benefits. Herein, Holt's method is used to estimate the sales of LED devices in China from 2012-2025. Then, we employ the market supply A model with Weibull lifetime distribution embedded to quantify the waste generation and in-use stock of LEDs. On this basis, the potential economic and environmental benefits of recycling are explored. Results show that: (1) From 2012 to 2025, the in-use stock of LEDs will increase from 0.13 to 66.17 billion pieces, while waste generation will increase from 1.57 million to 4.79 billion pieces; (2) In 2025, the potential economic benefits of recycling will reach $11.99 billion, mainly from precious metals; (3) In 2025, the carbon emission reductions of recycling will reach 7.54 billion tons (CO2-eq.), derived from the substitution of recycling for other waste disposal options. To keep technologies, capacities, and collection systems relatively in sync with the growing waste LEDs, priority should be given to lifetime extension and then sustainable designs. Nowadays, incentives for lifetime extension and the utilization of recycling systems for other e-waste are beneficial. In the medium-term, designs of modularity, standardization, and generalization, as well as the integration of disassembly, pre-treatment, and resource extraction, would be the focus. In the long run, the authority and stake-holders should spend efforts on clarifying recycling responsibilities, developing tailed business models, and promoting cost-effective recycling technologies.