STUDY ON PROBABILISTIC FRACTURE MECHANICS ANALYSIS CODES FOR PIPES WITH STRESS CORROSION CRACKS

Risk-Informed integrity management methodologies have been developed in Japanese nuclear power plants. One of the issues of concern is the reliability assessment of piping with flaws due to stress corrosion cracking (SCC). Therefore, the probabilistic fracture mechanics analysis code have been developed, which can perform the reliability assessment for the austenitic stainless steel piping with flaws due to SCC. This paper describes technical basis of this code. This method is based on Monte-Carlo technique considering many sample cases in a piping section, where the initiation and growth of cracks are calculated and piping failures, including leaks and rapture, are evaluated. A notable feature is that multiple cracks can be treated, consequently, assessment of coalescence of cracks and intricate break evaluation of piping section have been included. Moreover, the in-service inspection (ISI) and integrity evaluation by Fitness-for-Service (FFS) code are integrated into the analysis, and the contribution to failure probability decrease can be assessed. Key parameters are determined on a probability basis with the designated probability type throughout the procedure. Size, location and time of crack initiation, coefficients of crack growth due to SCC and factors for piping failure are included in those parameters. With this method the reliability level of the piping through the operation periods can be estimated and the contribution of various parameters including ISI can be quantitatively evaluated.