A new space-time computer simulation method for human migration

Migration is a universal but poorly understood human behavior, and new analytic tools for studying migration are badly needed. In this article, I describe a new computer simulation method for migrating human populations, which moves simulated human "actors" on a lattice of points according to simple probability rules. The method includes models of birth, death, crowding, and competition, as well as of migration. Simulations are developed for a number of specific problems, including migration into empty continents, the effect of competition and migration on the spatial distribution of populations, the effect of biased migration on urban population structure, and the distribution of city sizes determined by migration. Direct comparison of simulations with measured population distributions demonstrates the plausibility of the models. The simulations suggest that seemingly complex problems of human space-time population dynamics may be resolved into simple behavioral rules and that migration phenomena can be subjected to scientific analysis.