Research on Civil Aviation Emergency Decision-making Based on System Dynamics

This paper is different with those paper which combined with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and grey prediction model to construct the accident emergency response plan (ERP), but used a system dynamic theory to analysis the key parameters in the evolution of civil aircraft accident and we put forward a new evolutional dynamical flow graph for the appeared aircraft incident in civil aviation system, and next step we combine with the improved K2 method based on Bayesian network to establish a more comprehensive and practical than the traditional decision model based on prior knowledge, and it can provide aided decision for civil aviation aircraft accident emergency action.