Using longitudinal survival probabilities to test field vigour estimates in sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.)

Tree mortality is a major force driving forest dynamics. To foresters, however, tree mortality is often considered a loss in productivity. To reduce tree mortality, silvicultural systems, such as selection cuts, aim at removing trees that are more likely to die. In order to identify trees with higher risks of mortality, field classifications are employed that assess vigour based on external characteristics of trees. We used a novel longitudinal approach for estimating survival probabilities based on ring-width measurements, initially developed by Bigler and Bugmann [Bigler, C., Bugmann, H., 2004. Predicting the time of tree death using dendrochronological data. Ecol. Appl. 14 (3), 902-914], to parameterize a survival probability model for sugar maple (Acer saccharum Marsh.) and to test whether field-assessed tree vigour classes are corroborated by survival probabilities determined from radial growth history. Data from 56 dead and 321 live sugar maples were collected in stands in western Quebec (Canada) that had undergone a selection cut approximate to 10 years prior to sampling. Our results showed that tree vigour established from external defects and pathological symptoms, using the classification of Boulet [Boulet, B., 2005. Defauts externes et indices de la carie des arbres: guide d'interpretation. Publication du Quebec, Sainte-Foy, Quebec. 291 pp.], is partially corroborated by growth-driven survival probabilities. Moribund trees had lower survival probabilities than vigorous trees over several years in the period prior to vigour assessment. Intermediate vigour classes showed less obvious tendencies, but this may be due to the growth-independent nature of some defects used for their classification. Although the timing of tree death may not be correctly predicted by the vigour classification (i.e., our results suggest that time of death generally was overestimated), its general agreement with survival probabilities determined from growth series make it a useful tool for tree selection in sugar maple stands under selection management. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.