Voting and economic factors in French elections for the European Parliament

被引：4
|
作者：
Auberger, Antoine [1 ,2 ]
机构：
[1] Univ Paris 02, LARGEPA IRGEI, F-75006 Paris, France
[2] Univ Paris 01, CES, F-75647 Paris 13, France
来源：
PUBLIC CHOICE | 2012年 / 153卷 / 3-4期
关键词：
Vote functions; French elections; European Parliament; Election forecasting; Local unemployment; PRESIDENTIAL-ELECTION; MODEL; VOTE; ECONOMETRICS; POPULARITY; FORECASTS;
D O I：
10.1007/s11127-011-9796-9
中图分类号：
F [经济];
学科分类号：
02 ;
摘要：
This article builds and estimates several econometric models that explain and forecast the outcomes of the French elections for the European Parliament. These models show the influence of the change in the local unemployment rate to explain the vote for the moderate Left and the moderate Right in the French elections for the European Parliament. These models appear to be accurate in forecasting the elections of the past, and their behavior for the 2009 French election for the European Parliament is satisfactory.
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页码：329 / 340
页数：12
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