Research for the Cost Forecasting of Construction Project

Traditional approach to cost forecasting uses a single model for the entire construction period. However, different stages in a construction project require different financial obligations. A better approach to improve the accuracy of cost forecasting is to break the duration of the entire construction project into three stages. It is the attempt of this research to improve the traditional GM (1, 1) Grey Prediction Model by defining the proper alpha in place of 0.5. The new technique adopts the Golden Section Method to analyze the optimization in defining and build the cost forecasting model for each phase. The results show that the GM (1, 1) with proper alpha can more accurately forecast the expenditure for each month.