Early and accurate prediction of Peg-IFNs/ribavirin therapy outcome in the individual patient with chronic hepatitis C by modeling the dynamics of the infected cells

A novel biomathematical model that analyzes the combined alanine transaminase (ALT) and viral-load kinetics during the first month of pegylated interferon (Peg-IFN) plus ribavirin (RBV) therapy was successfully applied in 90 of 97 (93%) chronic hepatitis C patients in order to compute the number of infected cells at the end of therapy (I-eot). The I-eot indices were lower in sustained virological responders than in relapsers (RELs) and nonresponders (NRs) (median values: 31 vs. 2,190 vs. 1,090,000; P < 0.001), and were independently associated with treatment outcomes (P = 0.003). A threshold of 250 I-eot was shown to identify sustained virological response (SVR) with high positive predictive value (93%) and good diagnostic accuracy (81%). The time taken to attain 250 I-eot ranged from 3 to 11 months in patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) genotypes 2 or 3 and from 3 to 18 months in those with HCV genotypes 1 or 4. Overall, the duration of therapy would have been 49 months less than that suggested by the most recent algorithms based on a rapid virological response (RVR) at week 4.