Dynamic reliability and uncertainty analysis of a severe accident with randomly delayed events

The Stimulus-Driven Theory of Probabilistic Dynamics (SDTPD) and its simplified version have been introduced for the analytical modeling and the simulation of hybrid (continuous-discrete) systems with delayed events as well as for dynamic reliability considerations. An approach of non-Markovian simulation and uncertainty analysis is discussed in order to adapt SDTPD for practical applications. This developed approach and related methods for uncertainty analysis have been used as a basis for test case simulation in the perspective of its applications for severe accident scenario analysis. Finally, it is concluded that modeling of stimulated dynamics as well as uncertainty and sensitivity analysis allows the detailed simulation of complex system characteristics and representation of their uncertainty. The developed approach of analysis for hybrid systems with delayed events can be efficiently used to estimate the reliability of complex systems and at the same time to analyze the uncertainty of this estimate.