From social perception to public expression of opinion: A structural equation modeling approach to the spiral of silence

The paper presents a test of the spiral of silence theory by means of a structural equation modeling approach. It first proposes an integral formal model, designed to capture interdependencies between the theory's central concepts. Certain conceptual developments are introduced: willingness to express opinion is separated from actual expression of opinion in public; perception of opinion climate and of opinion trends are conceptualized as interactions between individuals' own preferences and stimuli from the social environment; fear of isolation is conceptualized as a variable conditioned by social perception; the role of normative import is conceptualized as specific to particular issues. Accordingly, the paper presents measures and analytical instruments for the test of the formal model. The informative methodological approach is adopted in order to control for possible errors, which determine the quality of empirical procedures. Results show that only parts of the theoretical model are confirmed. They strongly emphasize: (1) the role of social perception; (2) that complex social perception mechanisms shape willingness to express opinion; and (3) that fear of isolation to some extent also explains willingness to express opinion. However, while fear of isolation reduces willingness to express opinion, it does not itself decrease when opinions are congruent with the majority. The paper concludes with a discussion of possible theoretical and methodological explanations for our findings.