The correlation between the number of eligible patients in routine clinical practice and the low recruitment level in clinical trials: a retrospective study using electronic medical records

Background: A number of clinical trials have encountered difficulties enrolling a sufficient number of patients upon initiating the trial. Recently, many screening systems that search clinical data warehouses for patients who are eligible for clinical trials have been developed. We aimed to estimate the number of eligible patients using routine electronic medical records (EMRs) and to predict the difficulty of enrolling sufficient patients prior to beginning a trial. Methods: Investigator-initiated clinical trials that were conducted at Kyoto University Hospital between July 2004 and January 2011 were included in this study. We searched the EMRs for eligible patients and calculated the eligible EMR patient index by dividing the number of eligible patients in the EMRs by the target sample size. Additionally, we divided the trial eligibility criteria into corresponding data elements in the EMRs to evaluate the completeness of mapping clinical manifestation in trial eligibility criteria into structured data elements in the EMRs. We evaluated the correlation between the index and the accrual achievement with Spearman's rank correlation coefficient. Results: Thirteen of 19 trials did not achieve their original target sample size. Overall, 55% of the trial eligibility criteria were mapped into data elements in EMRs. The accrual achievement demonstrated a significant positive correlation with the eligible EMR patient index (r = 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.42 to 0.92). The receiver operating characteristic analysis revealed an eligible EMR patient index cut-off value of 1.7, with a sensitivity of 69.2% and a specificity of 100.0%. Conclusions: Our study suggests that the eligible EMR patient index remains exploratory but could be a useful component of the feasibility study when planning a clinical trial. Establishing a step to check whether there are likely to be a sufficient number of eligible patients enables sponsors and investigators to concentrate their resources and efforts on more achievable trials.