Regional analysis of the change factors in the oak (Quercus sp.) forest cover in the Tehuacan-Cuicatlan region, Mexico

Introduction: Oak (Quercus sp.) forests are scarcely represented in Mexico's Protected Natural Areas, and are highly susceptible to deforestation. Objective: To assess the regional dynamics of deforestation and recovery, as well as the factors of change in land cover and use (CLCU) in the oak forest of the Tehuacan-Cuicatlan Region (TCR) which includes the Tehuacan-Cuicatlan Biosphere Reserve (TCBR) polygon and its zone of influence. Materials and methods: The dynamics of the CLCU was analyzed in two periods; these were before (1979-2001) and after (2001-2011) the TCBR decree issuing. The analysis of the factors consisted of two stages: logistic regression analysis from the spatial interpolation of the factors, and analysis of the municipal socioeconomic trends based on change rates. Results and discussion: The oak forest was deforested prior to the TCBR decree, with a -0.97 % annual change rate. Deforestation was associated with low-slope areas, close to localities with a larger male population. In contrast, in the post-decree period its recovery stood out (0.22 %), which was associated with high-slope and high-elevation areas and a decrease in the male population. Conclusion: The TCBR decree must not be thought as the main cause of change in the CLCU processes; however, an indirect influence from it should be accepted.