POTENTIALS ANALYSIS FOR CARBON MITIGATION AND ENERGY USE REDUCTION IN SHANGHAI NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDINGS

The aim with this study is to show the potentials of energy consumption and the energy-related carbon emissions reduction in Shanghai non-residential buildings by scenario analysis method and to discuss the contributions of technical measures and policies for pursuing energy saving and carbon mitigation. System dynamic tool is applied to simulate the complicated social-economic-energy system over time. This paper defines three types of scenarios, BAU (business-as-usual), reference and ambitious scenarios involving different technical measures and policies. In order to highlight the importance of policies, this paper adds several sub-scenarios and compares the contributions of them. The results show that Shanghai can reduce by at most 22% of building energy use and 30.9% of the energy-related carbon emissions by 2020 on the 2005 baseline. hThe strong economic incentives, including both encouraging and penalty measures, are quite important for Shanghai building energy efficiency and CO2 mitigation.