Evaluation of Online Machine Learning Algorithms for Electricity Theft Detection in Smart Grids

Electricity theft-induced power loss is a pressing issue in both traditional and smart grid environments. In smart grids, smart meters can be used to track power consumption behaviour and detect any suspicious activity. However, smart meter readings can be compromised by deploying intrusion tactics or launching cyber attacks. In this regard, machine learning models can be used to assess the daily consumption patterns of customers and detect potential electricity theft incidents. Whilst existing research efforts have extensively focused on batch learning algorithms, this paper investigates the use of online machine learning algorithms for electricity theft detection in smart grid environments, based on a recently proposed dataset. Several algorithms including Naive Bayes, K-nearest Neighbours, K-nearest Neighbours with self-adjusting memory, Hoeffding Tree, Extremely Fast Decision Tree, Adaptive Random Forest and Leveraging Bagging are considered. These algorithms are evaluated using an online machine learning platform considering both binary and multi-class theft detection scenarios. Evaluation metrics include prediction accuracy, precision, recall, F-1 score and kappa statistic. Evaluation results demonstrate the ability of the Leveraging Bagging algorithm with an Adaptive Random Forest base classifier to surpass all other algorithms in terms of all the considered metrics, for both binary and multi-class theft detection. Hence, it can be considered as a viable option for electricity theft detection in smart grid environments.