An epidemiological model for SARS-CoV-2

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) is here investigated from an epidemic model considering four pathways of person-to-person transmission. These pathways represent the propagation of this novel coronavirus by asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals. In this work, analytical expressions for the disease-free and endemic steady-states are derived. Also, the conditions for eradication of this contagious disease are determined. By taking into account realistic parameter values, the proposed model shows an oscillatory convergence to the endemic steady-state, which means the occurrence of a sequence of peaks in the number of sick individuals as time passes. These results are discussed from a public health standpoint.